6-Point Analysis Articles GP Oakland GP Portland Grand Prix Oakland Grand Prix Portland News Tobi Henke

From Port to Oak and Beyond—Modern Matchups, Bans, and Ravnica Allegiances

From Port to Oak and Beyond—Modern Matchups, Bans, and Ravnica Allegiances

In the end, we come to the ultimate chapter within the saga of Trendy because it existed earlier than Ravnica Allegiance and earlier than the banning of Krark-Clan Ironworks. On this article, I need to take one final take a look at the info generated by the 2 most up-to-date GPs in Portland and Oakland, however I additionally need to have a look forward on the issues to return.

Word: All knowledge originates from a pattern of about 55% of Grand Prix Portland’s decks and 61% of Grand Prix Oakland’s decks. I point out complete matches performed, beginning area composition, general data, and such under. In all of those instances, I’m speaking concerning the recognized subset of the entire, albeit whereas working underneath the idea that the entire didn’t depart from these samples in any main approach.

I, for one, am unhappy to see Krark-Clan Ironworks depart the format, however the deck did persistently win 55+ % of its Grand Prix matches. In truth, it was one among solely two decks to take action in each Port- and Oakland …

For every of the key archetypes, the desk first exhibits what % of its matches it gained in Portland (with the full variety of matches that is based mostly on in parentheses) adopted by the identical for Oakland, and eventually the win proportion based mostly on all the matches added up.

What this implies is that, for instance, Hardened Scales’ report in Portland has far more sway over the general proportion than the deck’s document in Oakland, as a result of enjoying a Trendy GP and enjoying Hardened Scales have been each approach much less in style in January than in December. I thought-about various approaches to account for the distinction in turnouts, however they might have been extra deceptive than informative.

For probably the most half, I don’t consider that variations in archetype efficiency between the 2 occasions signify a hostile metagame turned pleasant, or vice versa. I can’t think about, as an example, that Bogles was a a lot better metagame selection for Oak than it was for Portland. The larger swings particularly possible simply signify that a deck is extra susceptible to massive up and downswings. Bogles appears to be the right poster youngster for such a daring declare. If I have been Brian DeMars, you’d now see one thing like this:

There are attainable exceptions. As beforehand mentioned, Tron might have suffered within the wake of Black-Inexperienced Midrange’s rise. Not fairly the marketed hundreds of thousands, however The Rock greater than tripled its metagame share from one Grand Prix to the subsequent, which means extra Murderer’s Trophies and fewer Urzatrons accomplished on flip Three.

Most decks didn’t do a lot in a different way at one GP than on the different, which is nice, as a result of that means they’ll maintain doing simply as properly sooner or later. The apparent caveat is that Ironworks has been faraway from the metagame, however the equally apparent counter to that’s that Ironworks by no means made up greater than four.5% of the sector.

This leaves us with Izzet Phoenix as by far probably the most persistently properly performing deck within the format. Throughout prerelease weekend, I labored on the protection for a smaller occasion in Italy—178 gamers in Trendy—the place for the primary time I noticed Izzet Phoenix take the pole place with a 10% metagame share. I’d look forward to finding comparable stats at upcoming Trendy tournaments. Notice additionally that Izzet’s 503-880 match document listed above consists of outcomes towards KCI. One among Oakland’s massive story arcs was that Arclight Phoenix beat three Ironworks gamers within the Prime Eight. However over the course of the complete Grand Prix, Izzet Phoenix went 9-17 towards the deck. So, if something, this fowl must be much more on hearth now.

In different information, Faeries’ general win price places it as probably the most profitable tribal deck, forward of Spirits and farther and farther forward of People, Elves, and Merfolk. Although, I’d advise human readers to not get forward of themselves. The 56.1% might look thrilling, however the extra necessary quantity would be the 82 matches. A report of 46-36 deserves consideration, and extra testing, however it isn’t as dependable as Spirits’ 714 wins to 639 losses.

One other archetype I need to speak about is Hardened Scales, which by some means went from greater than 5% of the sector in Portland to 2.7% in Oakland. So far as I can inform, the drop in reputation didn’t coincide with any improvement that would clarify it. The deck had carried out above common in Portland and it did even higher in Oakland. Due to this and since all of the Mox Opal and Historic Stirrings from Ironworks have to go someplace, I anticipate Hardened Scales’ illustration more likely to improve once more.

Lastly, I need to level out the astonishing undeniable fact that two-thirds of the desk above exhibits constructive general data. It’s because there’s an entire tail of the metagame that I needed to minimize off. Going alphabetically from Eight-Rack to Zoo, I might have listed 3 times as many archetypes, though their efficiency principally serves to elucidate how the decks above might achieve this properly. However this isn’t even the rationale for the omission. I merely excluded each archetype that didn’t submit a pattern of at the very least 30 matches at GP Oakland.

There hardly could possibly be higher proof for the well being of Trendy than 20—now 19—archetypes profitable between 50.1% and 57.2% of their matches throughout two GPs.

When compiling knowledge for the win proportion desk, I solely wanted to know which deck one participant in any given pairing ran. However for a variety of Grand Prix Oakland’s matches, Three,284 of them, I do know each gamers’ decks.

As I did earlier than for Grand Prix Portland, I’ve as soon as once more condensed probably the most notable outcomes from Grand Prix Oakland right into a map. Right here it’s:

The outcomes of a whole lot of pairings didn’t meet the standards for clear matchups. As well as, or relatively subtraction, I’ve determined to exclude all match outcomes involving Krark-Clan Ironworks. If I hadn’t, the map would present one further arrow going from Dying’s Shadow to KCI (Shadow went Eight-Three towards the deck), in addition to three arrows from KCI: to Hardened Scales (6-Zero), to Valakut (6-2), and to Izzet Phoenix (17-9). So it seems that Demise’s Shadow is down one favorable matchup, whereas Hardened Scales, TitanShift/Breach, and Izzet Phoenix gamers can all rejoice within the demise of 1 feared former foe.

In fact, the decommissioning of the Ironworks—and all of these members of the Krark clan dropping their jobs—isn’t the one incoming change to Trendy…

Most Commonplace units are filled with primary results which were completed earlier than, and executed higher or executed cheaper. They’re uninteresting for Trendy. We would like results by no means seen earlier than. Or we search results seen earlier than as soon as, to satisfy the essential necessities for consistency, the rule of eight. Playing cards reminiscent of Sphinx of Foresight, Guardian Challenge, Biomancer’s Acquainted, Prime Speaker Vannifar, Simic Ascendancy, or Teysa Karlov might discover a place in some deck some day.

Electrodominance is one other instance. Similar as As Foretold, it allows a participant to forged spells that don’t have a casting value. If that participant occurs to be Pascal Vieren and is legendary for his experience in all issues blue and pink, the top end result might seem like this:

Izzet Dwelling Finish

Pascal Vieren

A turn-1 kill is a distant, educational risk. The chances for that exact dream to return true show abysmal, however beating a gold fish on flip Three must be very doable, with the occasional flip 2 as an aspirational aim. One other dream I need to chase is so as to add a few Wheel of Destiny to this deck, however I assume that’s greater than it could help and too dangerous as nicely.

In Ravnica Allegiance, there are a few playing cards that do a primary impact simply as effectively as one of the best choices presently obtainable in Trendy. Three spells for “1” mana stands out.

In the event you’ve ever questioned concerning the considerably unusual label of “Devoted Vizier” in my tables and graphics, right here’s why I’ve taken to utilizing that: Chasing ever higher velocity, many gamers on the Devoted Druid/Vizier of Cures combo plan have stopped operating Collected Firm. So whereas it’s nonetheless the identical archetype, the identify “Devoted Firm” or “Counters Firm” is a shoe of a measurement that not matches all. Why do I deliver it up now? Properly, a card that has changed Collected Firm in a variety of lists is the infinitely much less highly effective however cheaper Commune with Nature. Bizarre flex, huh? But when Commune with Nature is a Trendy-worthy spell, Incubation // Incongruity definitely might be an addition or an enchancment.

After which there’s the duo of Skewer the Critics and Mild Up the Stage…

Jason Chung

Skewer the Critics is simply one other burn spell at going price, with further upside versus Chalice of the Void. Mild Up the Stage additionally is actually a card that has been accomplished earlier than. It’s Thoughtcast with totally different hoops to leap via.

Now, granted, Thoughtcast hasn’t seen play shortly, however that’s as a result of trendy Affinity is extra of a combo deck than a critical-mass deck. Affinity goals to mix a board filled with artifacts with one thing that multiplies the board’s injury output, and the speed of enablers to payoff works out in order that Thoughtcast is never greater than a fringe inclusion.

Burn, then again, doesn’t do difficult math corresponding to multiplication. It simply provides up, one burn spell after the opposite. Drawing two on this context is a completely totally different animal. I submitted my earlier article a few TurboFog variant in Normal earlier than Ravnica Allegiance got here to Area, and ever because it did I’ve been skewered and lit on hearth extra occasions than I care to confess. It stays to be seen whether or not or not the cardboard is sweet sufficient to enhance Burn’s lackluster efficiency in Trendy, however Mild Up the Stage seemed spectacular in Commonplace.

I’m excited to see what new allegiances might be cast at MagicFest Toronto subsequent month, and I hope I’ll have the ability to report again then.

s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)(window, doc,’script’,
fbq(‘init’, ‘151171912281643’);
fbq(‘monitor’, ‘PageView’);

(perform(d, s, id)
var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];
if (d.getElementById(id)) return;
js = d.createElement(s); js.id = id;
js.src = “//join.fb.internet/en_US/all.js#xfbml=1”;
fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs);
(doc, ‘script’, ‘facebook-jssdk’));

About the author