6-Point Analysis Articles GP Bilbao Grand Prix Bilbao Metagame Metagame Analysis Modern Metagame Analysis News Tobi Henke

Full Meta Packet—The 99% of Grand Prix Bilbao

A bag filled with paper deck lists from Grand Prix Bilbao.

Sure, you learn that appropriately. I used to be capable of set up which Trendy decks upward of 99% of the rivals at Grand Prix Bilbao selected to run. Particularly, I obtained 1,600 of 1,615.

I write “I,” however I couldn’t have accomplished it with out the assistance of lots of people who despatched me their deck information, their opponents’ deck information, and their encouragement. My largest thanks go to the European GP protection staff, i.e., Frank Karsten, who stretched the definition of carry-on baggage and scanned primarily all of the lacking lists for me.

On this article, I break down the metagame into tiny items, level out information alongside the best way, and share the highest decks’ general win percentages. Subsequent time, I’ll comply with up with probably the most large knowledge set of Trendy matchups ever.

I’ve divided the complete breakdown into tiers, following present cut-off factors. For instance, you’ll discover that some decks made up greater than 6% of the sector every, whereas the remaining all got here in at under 5%. The truth is, not one of the final three Trendy GPs had any decks performed by 5 to 6 % of the participant base anymore. This can be a current development towards fewer decks accounting for a bigger share of the sector.

  • 215 Izzet Phoenix (13.44% of 1,600)
  • 133 Burn (eight.31%)

Izzet Phoenix and Burn additionally have been probably the most represented decks on the parallel GP within the States. I assumed Tampa had set a brand new report with 12.2% of gamers on Izzet Phoenix. Seems, the event had progressed even additional in Bilbao.

It’s a clear development, too. Again in December, Izzet Phoenix made up lower than 5% of the sector. The deck climbed to greater than eight% in January. However it took till the primary week of March earlier than it broke the 10% threshold and have become the primary hottest deck for the primary time.

Individuals who clamor for a ban ought to take this under consideration: Izzet Phoenix has solely been probably the most performed deck at Trendy GPs for 4 weeks. Conversely, individuals who advocate towards a ban ought to word that it’s solely been 4 weeks and already it’s at 13%. In the meantime, everyone ought to be conscious that Izzet Phoenix elevated its metagame share to 22.2% on Day 2 of Grand Prix Bilbao.

  • 100 Rock (6.25%)
  • 98 Tron (6.13%)
  • 98 Shadow (6.13%)

5 of the previous six Trendy GPs passed off in North America. Tron was among the many 4 most performed decks. Demise’s Shadow was among the many seven hottest archetypes in any respect of them. To date the previous info out of the brand new world matches the brand new info out of the previous world.

The Rock, then again, all the time accounted for a smaller metagame share than both, often trailing Tron by three proportion factors. The numbers above might not point out a brand new improvement, however they present that gamers do issues in a different way in Europe.

  • 74 Dredge (four.63%)
  • 72 People (four.5%)
  • 65 White-Blue Management (four.06%)
  • 62 Spirits (three.88%)
  • 60 Hardened Scales (three.75%)

One other notable distinction considerations People and Hardened Scales. These two haven’t been among the many 9 hottest decks at North American GPs since December. That is bizarre as a result of they’ve been among the many 9 most profitable decks at virtually all of them. Each additionally improved their metagame share from Day 1 to Day 2 in Bilbao.

  • 53 Pink-Inexperienced Valakut (three.31%)
  • 42 Affinity (2.63%)
  • 34 Whir Jail (2.13%)

These three have all been on the transfer in current months. Earlier than the invention of Experimental Frenzy, Affinity was scraping by at under 1%. It peaked at GP Los Angeles with greater than three%. Then, following the invention that Experimental Frenzy doesn’t repair all issues, Affinity’s reputation waned once more on the subsequent GPs.

Whir Jail, in distinction, is the recent new deck in the mean time, with two finals appearances within the final 4 GPs. It broke the two% threshold for the primary time on the weekend of Bilbao and Tampa Bay, and it did so at each occasions concurrently. Anticipate additional positive aspects.

  • 29 Jund (1.81%)
  • 29 Advert Nauseam (1.81%)
  • 28 Jeskai Management (1.75%)
  • 28 Hole One (1.75%)
  • 25 Amulet Titan (1.56%)
  • 24 Pink Phoenix (1.5%)

Advert Nauseam and Amulet Titan have gained numerous followers within the wake of KCI’s departure. Some individuals will all the time gravitate towards quick combo, it seems. On the similar time, Trendy actually has no scarcity of decks with a combo side which are simply as quick or quicker. Hardened Scales, Affinity, Hole One, Dredge, Dying’s Shadow, Infect, Bogles, Elves, Goblins, eight Whack, and Bridgevine all have combo kills that may outrace Advert Nauseam.

Admittedly, Advert Nauseam comes with the benefit that Izzet Phoenix’s principal deck doesn’t work together with its recreation plan in any respect. Amulet Titan, in the meantime, is the true religious successor to KCI in that it’s equally exhausting to play.

  • 22 Eldrazi (1.38%)
  • 21 Bogles (1.31%)
  • 16 Storm (1%)
  • 15 Purple-based Jail (zero.94%)
  • 15 Devoted Vizier (zero.94%)
  • 14 Eldrazi and Taxes (zero.88%)
  • 13 Infect (zero.81%)
  • 12 Mill (zero.75%)
  • 12 Merfolk (zero.75%)
  • 11 Elves (zero.69%)
  • 10 Shadow Zoo (zero.63%)

Even among the many small stuff, there’s huge information. Though, on this case, it’s fairly the previous story. The earliest Dying’s Shadow designs, again when Gitaxian Probe was nonetheless round, had appeared just about like Julien Potier’s Prime eight deck in Bilbao. The extra aggressive strategy by no means actually died out, however it hasn’t been this in style in years—or this profitable.

Shadow Zoo

Julien Potier, Prime eight at GP Bilbao

1 Forest
four Bloodstained Mire
four Verdant Catacombs
four Wooded Foothills
1 Blood Crypt
1 Stomping Floor
1 Godless Shrine
1 Sacred Foundry
1 Overgrown Tomb
four Dying’s Shadow
four Monastery Swiftspear
four Wild Nacatl
four Tarmogoyf
four Road Wraith
2 Dismember
three Mutagenic Progress
three Grow to be Immense
four Thoughtseize
four Temur Battle Rage
2 Lightning Bolt
four Mishra’s Bauble

Sideboard
1 Inquisition of Kozilek
1 Duress
1 Historic Grudge
2 Deadly Push
three Collective Brutality
2 Hooting Mandrills
1 Declare/Fame
2 Religion’s Defend
2 Murderer’s Trophy

Additional down we discover a number of Professional Tour profitable archetypes of days passed by:

  • 9 Abzan Midrange (zero.56%)
  • eight Blue Valakut (zero.50%)
  • 7 Lantern Management (zero.44%)
  • 7 Demise and Taxes (zero.44%)
  • 6 Mardu Pyromancer (zero.38%)
  • 6 Electro Finish (zero.38%)
  • 6 Blue Tron (zero.38%)
  • 6 eight Rack (zero.38%)
  • 5 W/B Tokens (zero.31%)
  • 5 Ponza (zero.31%)
  • 5 Kiki (zero.31%)
  • 5 Grishoalbrand (zero.31%)
  • four Zoo (zero.25%)
  • four Sultai Reclamation (zero.25%)
  • four Martyr of Sands (zero.25%)
  • four Dwelling Finish (zero.25%)
  • four Grixis Management (zero.25%)
  • four Faeries (zero.25%)
  • four Esper Management zero.25%)

Lower than 4 gamers every pinned their hopes on eight Whack, Bant Firm, Bant Turbofog, Bridgevine, Cheerios, Devotion to Black, Devotion to Inexperienced, Devotion to White, Dragonstorm, Enchantress, Esper Mentor, Esper Vengeance, Goblins, Jeskai Ascendancy, Jeskai Aggro, Landfall Aggro, Mono-Inexperienced Stompy, Polymorph, Scrap Trawler Combo, Slivers, Soulflayer, Sultai Midrange, Taking Turns, Blue-Pink Wizards, Inexperienced-White Valuetown, and Zombies.

My earlier endeavors of this type all the time omitted greater than a 3rd of a event’s entries. Whereas unlikely, the lacking outcomes might have seemed utterly totally different from the recognized data. The next, in distinction, accounts for principally all matches performed at Grand Prix Bilbao. Probably the most complete knowledge set yields probably the most dependable outcomes too.

An image that shows the played versus won numbers and percentages for many matchups.

I restricted the above to the preferred archetypes, as a result of it’s unfair to match giant samples with small samples. Some fringe methods exhibited spectacular percentages on the expense of absolute numbers.

For instance, Bant Turbofog gained 83.three% of matches, Esper Mentor gained 71.four% of matches, Blue Electro Finish and Zoo each gained 60%, and eight Rack gained 56.three%. Sadly, the Bant Turbofog participant solely completed six matches, Esper Mentor completed seven, and the opposite three win charges are based mostly on 30, 35, and 48 matches, respectively. Even Amulet Titan’s document, for comparability, encompasses 171 matches.

What can we make of Whir Jail’s win fee? It’s far above something with an identical pattern, and the pattern itself isn’t too shabby both. What we find out about Whir Jail’s efficiency on the GPs in Los Angeles and Tampa doesn’t match 61.four%. However that is probably the most dependable discovering but and it isn’t even Whir’s highest win price so far. At GP Toronto, Whir Jail had gained 66.7% of 84 recorded matches.

All proof means that Whir Jail is for actual and would be the precise greatest deck in present Trendy. In a really literal sense, Whir didn’t win Grand Prix Bilbao. It solely positioned second. However with regard to general efficiency, Whir was the actual champion of the event.

The robust displaying of Dredge, Izzet Phoenix, and People ought to come as a shock to nobody. All have been profitable to an analogous diploma at a number of GPs now. Equally, Burn had all the time had a strong dropping report. In Bilbao, Burn by some means managed to do worse, by about one %, than it ever did earlier than. Why Burn has been among the many three hottest archetypes at each Trendy GP at the very least since December stays a thriller.

Tron’s win price is in line with earlier knowledge solely insofar as there’s completely no consistency to its outcomes. Tron appears to be a mad driver who typically veers throughout the road into the improper lane. Tron’s win charges at GPs main as much as this have been 52.2%, then 45.6%, then 53,four%, then 49.91%, after which Tron gained 56.5% of matches in Tampa concurrently it gained 49.7% in Bilbao.

For a attainable sleeper, I’d take a look at White-Blue Management. It’s been doing fairly properly recently. A metagame solidifying round a number of primary pillars is usually excellent news for management gamers who have to know towards what they should defend themselves. And there’s promising tech right here that solely begins to catch on, like Runed Halo.

An infographic showing the most popular decks at GP Bilbao and their win rates.

Click on to enlarge.

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