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Full Modern Metagame and Win Rates from Dallas – And What it Means Moving Forward

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There was a Trendy Grand Prix barely two weeks in the past, and already the info is a bit of outdated. Bridges have been crossed, and subsequently crossed off of the record of authorized playing cards. Individuals, to cite a well-known wizard, “delved too greedily and too deep. You realize what they awoke within the darkness.”

I’ll do my greatest to extract the knowledge that ought to nonetheless be related after the banning of Bridge from Under, and you might be stunned to study that a few of the assumptions about Bridgevine didn’t show true in any respect.

The highest three archetypes ought to come as no shock. Bridgevine claimed the primary spot on the spot, so to say. Izzet Phoenix certainly isn’t lifeless but, however gained some priceless instruments from Trendy Horizons itself. Because the earlier Trendy GP within the antebellum period, White-Blue Management picked up a couple of issues as properly.

  • 118 Bridgevine (9.5%)
  • 99 Izzet Phoenix (Eight.Zero%)
  • 92 White-Blue Management (7.Four%)

The subsequent decks in line included a pair that supposedly focused Bridgevine, and one or two that really carried out properly towards Bridgevine. Are you able to guess that are which?

  • 82 Infect (6.6%)
  • 78 People (6.three%)
  • 62 Mono-Purple Prowess (5.Zero%)
  • 61 Burn (Four.9%)
  • 39 Tron (three.1%)
  • 38 Devoted Vizier (three.1%)
  • 38 Jund (three.1%)
  • 37 Colorless Eldrazi (three.Zero%)

Infect and Devoted Vizier had hovered round 1% earlier than Hogaak joined the format. Each methods might outrace even the Altar of Dementia kill, and Bridgevine barely interacted with their recreation plan. So it made sense for them to take pleasure in a bigger following at this occasion than ever earlier than. I additionally heard point out of Eldrazi as a fantastic meta deck, though it stays unclear to me the place it match into the Bridgevine world.

One of many coolest, albeit sadly short-lived, items of know-how was the resurgence of the unique Eldrazi Titans in Tron. Karn, the Nice Creator on the battlefield is nice towards Altar of Dementia and all, however Kozilek, Butcher of Fact within the library is even higher.

One fascinating improvement that exists largely unconnected to the entire Bridgevine problem is the rise of Mono-Purple Prowess, because of Lava Dart and Finale of Promise. Wrenn and Six and Seasoned Pyromancer additionally let Jund pull forward of different black-green midrange decks.

  • 30 Rock (2.Four%)
  • 22 Spirits (1.Eight%)
  • 20 Pink-Inexperienced Valakut (1.6%)
  • 18 Hardened Scales (1.5%)
  • 18 Elves (1.5%)
  • 17 Pink Jail (1.Four%)
  • 16 Mardu Pyromancer (1.three%)
  • 15 Affinity (1.2%)
  • 14 Twin (1.1%)
  • 14 Storm (1.1%)

All Mardu Pyromancer decks now included eight Pyromancers, the younger one in addition to the grown-up, and virtually all included a pair Yawgmoth, Thran Doctor. The archetype turned a bit of extra common once more with these additions.

The dual combo of Saheeli Rai and Felidar Guardian, then again, made an enormous bounce in reputation, because of new Cat toys Narset, Parter of Veils and Teferi, Time Raveler.

  • 13 Thopter Foundry (1.Zero%)
  • 13 Eldrazi and Taxes (1.Zero%)
  • 13 Grixis Shadow (1.Zero%)
  • 12 Esper Shadow (1.Zero%)
  • 12 Amulet Titan (1.Zero%)
  • 11 Merfolk (Zero.9%)
  • 11 Dredge (Zero.9%)
  • 9 Bogles (Zero.7%)
  • 9 Esper Mentor (Zero.7%)
  • 9 Jeskai Management (Zero.7%)

The above part options: the high-speed model of Thopter Foundry/Sword of the Meek made attainable by Urza, Lord Excessive Artificer, the white model of Dying’s Shadow with Ranger-Captain of Eos and Teferi, in addition to the surprisingly aggressive Monastery Mentor monstrosity with Unearth.

Add in some Giver of Runes right here and there, some Slivers, plus Karn in all types of locations, and also you get a Trendy format modernized virtually past recognition when in comparison with the final massive occasions two months in the past. Though the Arisen Necropolis forged a big shadow over every part, the developments clearly didn’t cease at Hogaak.

  • Eight Esper Management (Zero.6%)
  • 7 Blue Tron (Zero.6%)
  • 7 White-Black Tokens (Zero.6%)
  • 7 Advert Nauseam (Zero.6%)
  • 7 Blue-Pink Delver (Zero.6%)
  • 7 Slivers (Zero.6%)
  • 6 X Rack (Zero.5%)
  • 5 Whir of Invention Jail (Zero.Four%)
  • 5 Martyr of Sands (Zero.Four%)
  • 5 Ponza (Zero.Four%)
  • 5 Black Devotion (Zero.Four%)
  • 5 Dying and Taxes (Zero.Four%)
  • 5 Mill (Zero.Four%)

Neoform Combo remained a minor footnote. The identical was true for devoted Snow decks, Goblins, Ninjas, Tribal Zombies, and decks constructed across the interplay of Dreadhorde Arcanist or Collected Conjuring with Ancestral Imaginative and prescient, Crashing Footfalls, and their ilk.

The Win Charges

Three of the 5 Whir Jail pilots in attendance transformed their begin right into a Day 2 end. A conversion price of 60% is as spectacular as it’s unrealistic, although. You’ll solely ever discover such excessive numbers amongst decks with a really low participant quantity. Among the many decks with a pretty big base, Bridgevine led the cost into the second day with a powerful however real looking conversion fee of 33%. At any price, conversion charges not often inform the complete story, not even the complete story of an archetype’s Day 1 efficiency. I favor to calculate the precise win proportion in accomplished matches throughout the entire event, excluding byes and attracts.

  • Whir Jail gained 61.Eight% of 55 matches (56.5% of 46 non-Bridgevine matches)
  • Colorless Eldrazi gained 59.1% of 318 matches (60.three% of 272)
  • Bridgevine gained 56.three% of 975 matches

On this metric, Bridgevine did properly, however didn’t excel. At 57.6%, its win fee within the first eight rounds clarify why it almost doubled its metagame share from Saturday to Sunday. This leaves however one potential rationalization: Bridgevine gamers merely had extra byes than others. Certainly, lower than half of them performed Spherical 1 and fewer than 70% performed Spherical 2.

This doesn’t imply it was a mistake to ban Bridge from Under. The truth that the extra completed gamers within the room ran extra Bridgevine than the typical may rely for one thing itself. The deck additionally warped the metagame to an uncomfortable diploma. However Bridgevine didn’t do an outrageous quantity of profitable at GP Dallas, and it proved beatable.

Whir Jail, for example, went Eight-1 versus Bridgevine. Colorless Eldrazi decks at the least might maintain their very own towards Hogaak, though their 24-22 efficiency within the matchup did drag down their general win price.

  • Scales gained 55.6% of 169 matches (57.1% of 140 non-Bridgevine matches)
  • Thopter Foundry gained 55.three% of 114 matches (53.9% of 102)
  • Devoted Vizier gained 54.Eight% of 301 matches (54.5% of 266)
  • Jund gained 54.7% of 307 matches (54.Zero% of 263)

Hardened Scales decks went 14-15 towards Bridgevine, Thopter Foundry went Eight-Four, and Devoted Vizier went 20-15. The latter was presupposed to be notably good versus Bridgevine, so 20-15 is considerably disappointing. At 26-18, even Jund fared higher within the matchup.

  • Purple Jail gained 54.5% of 123 matches (55.1% of 107 non-Bridgevine matches)
  • Merfolk gained 53.Eight% of 78 matches (54.2% of 72 non-Bridgevine matches)
  • Affinity gained 53.5% of 114 matches (54.three% of 105 non-Bridgevine matches)
  • People gained 52.9% of 580 matches (51.Four% of 512 non-Bridgevine matches)
  • Mono-Purple Prowess gained 52.9% of 518 matches (53.Eight% of 465)
  • White-Blue Management gained 51.9% of 619 matches (54.three% of 562)
  • Burn gained 51.6% of 473 matches (52.7% of 421)
  • Eldrazi and Taxes gained 51.6% of 95 matches (54.7% of 86)
  • Mardu Pyromancer gained 50.Four% of 113 matches (52.9% of 102)
  • Twin gained 50.Zero% of 84 matches (52.6% of 76)
  • Blue Tron gained 50.Zero% of 46 matches (51.2% of 43)

General, the overwhelming majority of decks misplaced extra of their Bridgevine encounters than they gained (the odds inside parentheses are greater than these with out) and a few to a surprising diploma. Mono-Purple Prowess’s 24-29 and Burn’s 22-30 report within the matchup have been innocent as compared. Probably the most considerably dangerous performances towards Hogaak got here from White-Blue Management, profitable a scant 16 of 57 matches, or 28.1%. The associated Esper and Jeskai Management decks added a mixed Zero-Four on prime.

The technique that did greatest versus Bridgevine, for some cause, turned out to be People. People’ 44-24 report within the matchup bears a better statistical significance even than Whir’s Eight-1.

  • Martyr gained 50.Zero% of 32 matches (48.1% of 27 non-Bridgevine matches)
  • White-Black Tokens gained 49.Zero% of 49 matches (48.Eight% of 43)
  • Rock gained 47.7% of 216 matches (47.2% of 195)
  • Infect gained 47.three% of 548 matches (47.Eight% of 506)
  • Esper Shadow gained 46.Eight% of 79 matches (47.1% of 68)
  • In one other sudden improvement, Infect had a unfavourable document versus Bridgevine: 17-25.
  • Spirits gained 45.9% of 135 matches (45.5% of 123 non-Bridgevine matches)
  • Izzet Phoenix gained 45.6% of 673 matches (45.9% of 588)
  • Amulet Titan gained 45.three% of 75 matches (47.Eight% of 67)
  • Tron gained 45.1% of 257 matches (47.1% of 223)
  • Bogles gained 44.1% of 59 matches (47.three% of 55)
  • Esper Mentor gained 43.5% of 46 matches (43.9% of 41)

Right here’s a information merchandise which will deserve continued consideration after the banning: fashionable archetypes Izzet Phoenix and Tron underperformed even with no direct hyperlink to the Bridgevine prevalence.

It’s potential to assemble an oblique connection for Tron no less than. Tron gamers might have run afoul of the weird excessive quantity of Infect and Devoted Vizier within the area. Izzet Phoenix doesn’t have such an evidence as recourse, and data of 307-366 and 270-318 (with out Bridgevine) are each dangerous and each fairly vital at that.

  • Dredge gained 43.2% of 74 matches (51.6% of 62 non-Bridgevine matches)
  • Jeskai Management gained 43.1% of 51 matches (44.Zero% of 50 non-Bridgevine matches)
  • Pink-Inexperienced Valakut gained 42.Four% of 132 matches (46.2% of 119)
  • Advert Nauseam gained 42.three% of 52 matches (44.9% of 49)
  • Blue-Purple Delver gained 42.1% of 38 matches (51.6% of 31)

Pink-Inexperienced Valakut, Dredge, and Blue-Pink Delver have been the decks with the most important efficiency distinction between a world with Bridgevine and one with out. The latter two even sported a profitable document once we low cost their respective Zero-12 and Zero-7 run within the matchup. Valakut decks no less than gained one in every of their 13 encounters towards Bridgevine.

  • Elves gained 41.three% of 104 matches (42.9% of 91 non-Bridgevine matches)
  • Storm gained 41.2% of 85 matches (40.7% of 81 non-Bridgevine matches)
  • Esper Management gained 40.Zero% of 40 matches (43.2% of 37)
  • Ponza gained 40.Zero% of 45 matches (43.9% of 41)
  • X Rack gained 37.5% of 40 matches (40.5% of 37)
  • Black Devotion gained 36.Four% of 33 matches (37.5% of 32)
  • Grixis Shadow gained 35.9% of 78 matches (35.2% of 71)
  • Slivers gained 35.6% of 45 matches (36.Four% of 44)
  • Demise & Taxes gained 33.three% of 21 matches (33.three% of 21)
  • Mill gained 31.three% of 32 matches (30.Zero% of 30)

TL;DR

Bridgevine’s general win fee at Grand Prix Dallas was not as alarming as anticipated. A number of the alarming early information relating to Day 2 development simply couldn’t account for the truth that Bridgevine gamers had extra event byes than another group. Admittedly, Bridgevine additionally had the very best variety of in-game byes in that the deck by no means misplaced a match to both Dredge, Blue-Purple Delver, Ponza, Bogles, X Rack, Advert Nauseam, Esper Management, Slivers, Jeskai Management, or Demise and Taxes. (We all know in fact that a deck with excessive matchups is best than one with even matchups.)

Bridgevine additionally influenced card and deck choice throughout. For instance, Infect and Devoted Vizier have been in style like by no means earlier than, a transfer probably meant as a countermeasure. That is humorous, as a result of the Vizier decks solely went 20-15 within the matchup, whereas Infect misplaced 17-25 to Bridgevine. As an alternative, the methods that beat Hogaak most reliably have been People (44-24) and Whir Jail (Eight-1), adopted at a long way by Jund (26-18).

Some perception could also be relevant to a post-Bridge future as nicely. For instance, the second-most in style deck, Izzet Phoenix, put up considerably dangerous outcomes even towards non-Bridgevine decks. The third hottest, White-Blue Management, misplaced horribly to Bridgevine, however exhibited a considerably excessive win fee throughout its different matches.

The efficiency of Eldrazi Tron largely eclipsed that of basic inexperienced Tron, whereas Mono-Purple Prowess gamers broke the 5% threshold for the primary time and did fairly properly too. General, many new decks popped up and had a promising displaying, as an example the brand new Thopter Foundry decks powered by Urza, Lord Excessive Artificer.

The Whir Jail pilots carried out so properly that their mixed document virtually reached the customary benchmark for statistical significance. That is fairly the feat, contemplating that there have been solely 5 of them. Sadly, a big a part of this was based mostly on their robust Bridgevine matchup.

There’s so much to course of and quite a bit nonetheless left to check. All in all, the way forward for Trendy appears shiny. Right here’s a remaining take a look at the newest previous:

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