6-Point Analysis Articles Burn Death's Shadow Dredge GP Portland Grand Prix Portland Hardened Scales Humans Infect Ironworks Izzet Phoenix Jund News Spirits Tron WU Control

The Ghosts of Portland—Massive Modern Matchup Analysis

The Ghosts of Portland—Massive Modern Matchup Analysis

I do know, I do know—my timing is slightly off. The Trendy group has moved on from the land of ports to the land of oaks. However for final week’s article, I used to be working underneath the menace that the bot conduct on MTG Area might change at any time. So I merely needed to get my answer to its Draft format on the market whereas the take was nonetheless scorching/true.

As you may have the ability to think about, sorting and analyzing large quantities of knowledge additionally takes some time, so I can’t concentrate on knowledge from Grand Prix Oakland fairly but anyway. Don’t fear, I’ll get to that subsequent. Within the meantime, let’s take a look at matchup outcomes from the earlier Trendy Grand Prix in Portland, which passed off a few month in the past. As an additional advantage, this could depart us with a superb baseline with which to match Oakland’s knowledge!

I’m once more working off of the identical knowledge set that I used two weeks in the past: 971 primary occasion deck lists, greater than 55% of GP Portland’s complete entries. For this text, I cross referenced outcomes with decks to determine towards what the main archetypes gained and misplaced.

All in all, I do know for 7,187 matches throughout Day 1 and Day 2 which deck the profitable participant ran. For Four,224 of them, I do know the deck selection of each gamers. I’ll give attention to the latter and reference a deck’s general report each time that’s noteworthy.

Observe that Trendy has a ton of supposedly viable decks, they usually look viable exactly as a result of something can win on a superb draw. Many pairings solely occurred a few occasions. These match outcomes barely present any perception with regard to the underlying matchup.

For instance, I might listing Spirits’ 1-2 report versus Eight-Rack, its 1-2 towards Abzan Midrange, its Three-Three towards Affinity, and its 2-Four versus Amulet Titan, and we’re solely right down to the primary letter of the alphabet right here. However I don’t assume we should always draw any conclusions based mostly on that. As a result of I wanted to make a reduce someplace, I made a decision to ignore all outcomes from three or fewer encounters. Likewise, for pairings that occurred between 4 and 9 occasions, I solely included the outcomes in the event that they favored one deck over the opposite by upward of 70%.

This leaves us with matchups that seem to have a transparent winner based mostly on a considerably affordable pattern measurement, with matchups which have a possible however unclear winner based mostly on extra fragile proof, and with matchups that look about even based mostly on a double-digit variety of matches.

Spirits was by far probably the most represented archetype in my pattern and, by affordable extension, very more likely to have been the preferred deck within the event as an entire. As such, it generated probably the most match knowledge too.

The highest half of the spectrum from good to dangerous doesn’t maintain many surprises. The mixture of a quick clock with disruption and punishing sideboard choices makes Spirits a deck Ironworks gamers don’t need to face too typically. That Spirits controls the tempo versus White-Blue Management is equally in keeping with expectations, as is that it has a more durable time versus the Jeskai counterpart.

We’ve got to search for the information on the backside right here, however boy do we discover information. All the decks with Arclight Phoenix gave Spirits a kind of extreme beating!

Once I checked out metagame shares, I used to be stunned to seek out green-based Tron holding out in second place, even after what looks like years of latest hate playing cards added to the Trendy card pool. However its outcomes don’t look all that shocking to me.

The deck had all the time been recognized to prey on conventional Jund and management. Throughout Dying’s Shadow’s heyday it was well-known as a problematic matchup, and I don’t think about its good report versus Spellstutter Sprite to be a lot of a spike both. Towards White-Blue Management with its Area of Destroy, by the best way, Tron went Four-Four.

Tron’s restricted choices for interplay depart it the perfect sufferer for Storm’s recreation plan. Fringe methods like Ponza, Mill, and Merfolk, in the meantime, deliver their very own essential interplay. They already run some land destruction most important, even when it’s simply Ghost Quarter, Area of Wreck, and/or Spreading Seas. These days, the identical is true for Black-Inexperienced Rock and Murderer’s Trophy is making its presence felt.

I can see how Tron may eke out a good document versus Ironworks, though my expertise had me anticipate in a different way. The one factor that leaves me really baffled is that Tron gained virtually half of its matches versus Infect.

Burn’s outcomes, in distinction, are all over, and I can’t make sense of a whole lot of this:

For example, towards Jund’s closest kin, Abzan Midrange and B/G Rock, Burn posted profitable data, at 2-1 and Three-2 respectively. Versus White-Blue Management, which has a much less painful mana base than Jeskai however won’t ever goal Lightning Helix with Snapcaster Mage, Burn went Three-Four.

The above numbers don’t clarify how the deck managed to place lower than 14% of its pilots from our pattern into the second day. So I really feel the necessity to level out that general Burn went 166-194 towards the sector.

We’re solely right down to our fourth hottest deck and already the entire numbers are dwindling. 4 to eleven matches aren’t correct proof.

This time, not even calling shut kinfolk of listed decks to the witness stand corroborates or calls into query a lot of something. Hardened Scales went fifty-fifty towards Abzan Midrange and B/G Rock, in addition to 2-Three versus Jeskai Management.

Nonetheless, the absence of too many outliers presents perception in its personal proper. That’s, Hardened Scales seems to be an all-rounder, with no various lopsided matchups on both aspect of the divide. The excellent news: crucial matchup, Spirits, went favorably with probably the most convincing pattern measurement.

General, Hardened Scales gained a strong 54.Three% of the 381 of its matches on which I’ve knowledge.

The Izzet League despatched a brand new contender into the ring at Grand Prix Portland. Listed here are the notable matchups for all blue-red builds that includes Arclight Phoenix:

There’s little question that Izzet Phoenix’s win charges towards Hole One and Infect would turn into much less pronounced in a bigger pattern, simply as I’m positive the deck would beat Dredge sooner or later. Aside from these and the aforementioned robust Spirits matchups, we get little notable knowledge.

My suspicion: Izzet Phoenix doesn’t profit from many excessive matchups, and suffers from fewer. Its 57.1% profitable report in 401 recorded matches is in reality a document, and comes with a two-pronged implication for the longer term or, within the case of GP Oakland, the current previous. Izzet Phoenix’s metagame share ought to rise, and its win fee ought to go down. For sure, checking up on these predictions is excessive up on my to-do listing as quickly as I get a take a look at Oakland’s knowledge.

And we’re again on monitor with smart, informative outcomes! For a while some time in the past, mana expenditure in Trendy was locked in a downward spiral. Decks have been trying to go ever cheaper, and Dying’s Shadow was each the epitome of this improvement in addition to that setting’s logical champion. From there, the one means onward was up, and Dying’s Shadow didn’t match up too properly towards methods aiming for a much bigger and extra strong endgame relatively than velocity vulnerable to pinpoint disruption.

Whereas the deck completed in first place at GP Portland, its general efficiency lacked in luster. It solely gained 49.Three% of the matches about which I do know, and this consists of Tyler Putnam’s Three-Zero run by way of the Prime Eight.

Along with the issues talked about above, two issues stand out. One, in a world the place Dredge has acquired new toys, counting on a pair of Surgical Extraction for graveyard removing—as Putnam did—perhaps doesn’t minimize it anymore. Two, if Ponza can’t even beat a deck that depends on seven lands to supply all of its mana, then that’s actually one thing. In all probability an indictment.

Most of KCI’s notable stats I already talked about once they confirmed up earlier. I repeat the complete record right here in your viewing pleasure and as an example a bigger level:

Ironworks reveals one of many extra lopsided matchup spreads we’ve seen up to now. When the deck is sweet, it’s actually good. Although the whole lot might change at second’s discover if individuals turned the knobs of their sideboards, the thumbscrews, accordingly.

In the event you’re on the lookout for an evidence of why Ironworks proved a lot extra profitable towards Hole Phoenix than it was towards conventional Hole One: One (pun acknowledged) harbors an Historic Grudge and Leyline of the Void, whereas the opposite sometimes doesn’t (or didn’t as of Portland anyway).

For one thing utterly totally different, extra even throughout the board, we should always have the ability to flip to Jund, Trendy’s unique midrange and middle-of-the-road gangster …

Properly, I can’t clarify both why the deck would do nicely towards Burn and Amulet Titan, or why it misplaced each match towards People. I principally suspect all of Jund’s matchups to lie nearer to 50% than this, and am prepared to attribute the outliers to the low match rely.

I did my greatest to make sense of the outcomes thus far, or you possibly can say I did my worst. “Make” is certainly the right phrase. Relying in your fault tolerance, “too little knowledge” can be an equally legitimate or superior interpretation for a variety of matchups mentioned above. I’m clearly an enormous believer in evaluating precise outcomes with anticipated outcomes, or of on the lookout for the reason why matches went the best way they did. Your mileage might completely range.

In the event you assume any of those outcomes differ massively from how a matchup ought to play out, I can solely encourage you to go away a remark under! Opposite to widespread knowledge, I don’t assume it’s onerous to argue with outcomes. I consider it’s important. As I by no means tire of repeating: Actuality is however a woefully imperfect approximation of arithmetic. To reverse engineer particular fact from remark, we’d have to watch far more matches. The most effective we will accept is possible fact.

Both approach, we’ve reached the purpose the place I merely dump all the remaining matchup tables. Take pleasure in!

Subsequent in line, the thirteenth commonest archetype in my pattern was Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle, which means TitanShift/Breach. However underneath the identical standards as earlier than (decks paired towards one another ten occasions or one deck defeating the opposite with 70+ % in no less than 4 encounters complete) there’s nothing extra so as to add right here. Valakut didn’t meet/beat/lose to any additional decks typically sufficient.

Actually, among the many much less well-liked methods solely 4 extra pairings in all the subject rose to that degree. Black-Inexperienced Rock beat Amulet Titan Three-1 with Murderer’s Trophy, Hole Phoenix beat Amulet Titan Three-1 with luck, whereas Devoted Vizier went 5-Zero versus non-Hole Pink Phoenix and 1-Three versus Storm.

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