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The Most Massive Modern Metagame/Matchup Analysis Yet

The Most Massive Modern Metagame/Matchup Analysis Yet

I’ve been wanting on the knowledge from Trendy GPs for a a number of months now, a saga spun throughout seven articles, roughly 13,500 phrases, and a lot of infographics. It’s in all probability a good suggestion to start out this most up-to-date look with a recap of the pertinent conclusions reached earlier.

If an image is value greater than 1,000 phrases, listed here are Four,000 phrases on the state of Trendy, December 2018–February 2019. A bit of recap within the run-up to probably the most large Trendy Metagame/Matchup evaluation but … pic.twitter.com/Qaz4PaKEet

— Tobi (@TobiHenke) March 13, 2019

Topping the listing is how little the Trendy-playing populace at giant is swayed by event outcomes, or how lengthy it takes them to adapt. As an example, whilst early as GP Portland in December, knowledge confirmed, or at the very least instructed strongly, that Izzet Phoenix was the perfect deck within the format. Again then, Izzet Phoenix was the fourth or fifth hottest deck, behind Spirits, Tron, and Burn. Its metagame share grew, however at GP Oakland in January the preferred deck remained Spirits, whereas at GP Toronto in February the brand new hottest deck was Burn. All through all of it, Izzet Phoenix exhibited the very best win fee on the most dependable pattern measurement, greater even than KCI’s.

Burn itself is the prime instance for the precise reverse conundrum. Knowledge confirmed that Burn wasn’t good in December. Someway the deck turned extra in style in January anyway. Then, with the addition of Skewer the Critics and Mild Up the Stage, Burn elevated in reputation as soon as once more in February. All through all of it, Burn persistently carried out nicely under common. However Burn is hardly alone in that camp. Spirits and Tron didn’t do notably properly both, however retained a metagame share that their win charges not justified.

The opposite fixed about Trendy is that just one archetype ever breaks the 10% threshold. At tournaments that don’t require an invitation, it’s a provided that not more than a single tenth—or ninth—of the sector agrees upon a deck. This selection serves as Trendy’s largest boon and bane. It makes for an pleasant play expertise and for an satisfying viewing expertise. On the similar time, it makes efficient metagaming and efficient knowledge evaluation very, very exhausting.

For instance, notable Magic specialists identify Dying’s Shadow and Dredge as a few of the format’s prime decks. However each decks’ metagame shares and their efficiency fluctuated so wildly throughout the newest batch of GPs that it’s inconceivable to substantiate any such declare. A considerably notable exception, Hardened Scales continued to carry out nicely even within the face of dwindling participant confidence.

Fortunately, all of that’s going to vary, proper?

Trendy Horizons will certainly change the face of Trendy. Extra related, although, and extra instantly impactful, could also be that the subsequent Mythic Championship will function Trendy. For a very long time, the most effective gamers on the earth might deal with the format a lot the identical method they deal with Legacy: a pleasant choice, however an choice. Now, for the primary time in whereas, there’s once more a have to determine issues out for actual, and a necessity to resolve issues.

We should always anticipate Trendy to turn into a extra critical enterprise within the run-up to the Mythic Championship, as gamers will need to check for an important tabletop occasion of 2019’s second quarter. A extra critical deck choice course of can solely assist the quantity crunching, and vice versa.

Let’s get to it then, and take a look at the numbers for Grand Prix Los Angeles …

Going by creature sort, the event was clearly misplaced. It ought to have taken place in Arizona’s most populous metropolis slightly than California’s. Then once more, one is far bigger than the opposite, and enormous samples are precisely what the physician (Frank Karsten) ordered. The gamers right here additionally have been actual angels in that they gave me the most important knowledge set of deck info I ever was capable of work with, each in absolute numbers and percentage-wise.

For GP Portland I knew what decks 971 gamers, 55% of the full attendees, performed. For GP Oakland, this was 693 and 61%, respectively. Grand Prix Los Angeles set a brand new report at 1,029 recognized decks, equaling a bit greater than 65%. Excessive absolute numbers are nice as a result of they translate to rather more conclusive win charges throughout the all the time similar 15+Three rounds.

Excessive relative numbers are nice as a result of they permit us to make extra correct inferences as to the complete area composition. Additionally they produce far more matches the place each gamers’ decks are recognized, which yields extra correct outcomes for matchups between archetypes. Let’s begin with the primary. Listed here are GP L.A.’s 28 hottest decks, based mostly on our >65% pattern:


Lastly—the Phoenix alighted on the highest spire of city. This additionally marks the second time now that Dredge positioned inside the prime 5, and the very best share for Mono-Purple Phoenix seen thus far. Burn and Tron proceed to cling to the highest, inexplicably, whereas Spirits has fallen removed from its 10% perch simply two months prior for good purpose.

It’s customary to take a look at the charges at which archetypes superior to the second day. However precise win percentages should present higher perception, proper? So let’s bypass the one and advance straight to the opposite:

Above I discussed that Izzet Phoenix confirmed one of many highest win charges at earlier GPs. This development didn’t proceed in Los Angeles, and it appears that evidently the metagame has certainly begun to show considerably hostile. We see proof within the large positive aspects for Dredge, which is claimed to be one among Izzet’s worst matchups. However when evaluating these numbers, we additionally should consider that a bigger inhabitants gravitates to extra common performances virtually by default. The primary stream often finds itself someplace within the center.

Distinctive outcomes, however, are the area of the few slightly than the various, and we have to take theirs with a grain of salt. For instance, the odds for Hardened Scales, Amulet Titan, Whir Jail, Infect, People, and Eldrazi look a bit too good to be true as a result of they’re far more doubtless to not mirror precise fact. A few of them could also be actual, however the pattern sizes—of 215, 208, 83, 88, 257, and 139 matches, respectively—don’t maintain as much as Izzet Phoenix’s whopping 806 matches.

That doesn’t imply we should always ignore these outcomes. Whir of Invention Jail has proven fairly a little bit of promise earlier than. People and Amulet Titan have been the 2 decks that superior to Day 2 on the highest charges in Toronto. And Hardened Scales posted a constructive document at every of the previous 4 GPs now. All of them are evidently nice, however Izzet Phoenix nonetheless has the outcomes too to take care of its place atop the metagame. I wouldn’t anticipate this to vary for some time.

I might inform you that Vampires went Zero-2 versus Affinity or that White-Black Tokens cut up two matches towards Burn. Or I might inform you about that one time when Zombies confronted off towards Grixis Management, and Zombies misplaced. I simply point out this so you understand that I dug deep into an unlimited cavern echoing with white noise to mine the nuggets of related info.

Related, I’ve determined, have been combination outcomes the place one deck beat one other in no less than 80% of 4 to 10 matches, 70% of 11 to 20 matches, or 60% of greater than 20 matches. I’m positive one might calculate a corresponding confidence degree to make the strategy look extra scientific. However I don’t assume there’s a lot profit to it aside from to obscure the indisputable fact that it’s a little bit of an arbitrary willpower. Your mileage might very properly range.

Whir Jail went:

  • 6-1 versus Izzet Phoenix
  • 5-1 versus Inexperienced Tron

I’m beginning on the backside of the metagame right here, for 2 causes. For one factor, it’s superb that a deck piloted by as few as 9 out of 1,029 gamers even generated any notable outcomes in any respect. Such is the great thing about figuring out 65% of the sector.

The second purpose is that these outcomes are legitimately fascinating. Individuals have been speaking of Whir’s wonderful Phoenix matchup at size, though it’s all the time good to see proof. Extra shocking is its report towards Tron. I solely noticed one Tron/Whir function match in the course of the wonderful video protection of GP L.A., and I might think about that this served as an introduction to the matchup for a lot of.

Between Oblivion Stone, Ulamog, and World Breaker it was a decisive victory for UrzaTron then. I used to be rooting for the quirky underdog deck (underdeck?) and stored considering: Please, say it isn’t so. Nicely, seems, it might not in truth be so. The above means that we witnessed a probably singular outlier. The deck can tutor for Damping Sphere, Tectonic Edge, and Crucible of Worlds, has multiples of Sorcerous Spyglass and Welding Jar, and Chalice of the Void takes care of Nature’s Declare. I consider 5-1 could also be extra lifelike than the Zero-1 we knew about beforehand.

Switching to the highest of the metagame, Izzet Phoenix went:

  • 10-1 versus Zoo
  • 7-1 versus Elves
  • 16-Four versus Spirits
  • Four-1 versus Advert Nauseam
  • 11-Four versus Purple-Inexperienced Valakut
  • 15-7 versus Pink Phoenix
  • 17-10 versus Affinity
  • 21-14 versus Dying’s Shadow
  • 10-16 versus White-Blue Management
  • 1-6 versus Whir Jail

Probably probably the most notable info we will derive from this record considerations what’s absent from this record. The place is Dredge? I do know that Dredge beat Izzet Phoenix 16-Three in 19 matches throughout Port- and Oakland. This time, nevertheless, we solely have a report of Dredge going 29-21 towards the deck. That’s nonetheless solidly favorable, however 58% isn’t fairly the identical as 84%. Plainly Izzet gamers managed to show a hopeless pairing right into a winnable pairing via improved sideboards, essential deck Surgical Extraction, and probably a greater understanding of the matchup.

In different information, the above lists eight constructive and simply two unfavourable data, though the image is tainted a bit by the very fact what number of of them are fringe decks. Towards a variety of the main gamers Izzet Phoenix fared about even, as an example 25-29 versus Tron, 15-16 versus Burn, and 14-14 towards Rock.

Inexperienced Tron went:

  • Four-Zero versus Lantern Management
  • 5-1 versus Merfolk
  • Four-1 versus Pink Jail
  • 6-26 versus Burn
  • 6-15 versus Dying’s Shadow
  • 1-5 versus Whir Jail
  • Zero-Four versus Infect

As well as, Tron beat White-Blue Management 7-Three and misplaced to Storm 2-5. Neither matches the strict standards outlined earlier, however each matches outcomes from earlier GPs.

Burn went:

  • 6-1 versus Elves
  • 26-6 versus Inexperienced Tron
  • 15-Four versus Spirits
  • Four-10 versus Affinity
  • 9-14 versus White-Blue Management
  • Four-10 versus Purple Phoenix
  • 1-5 versus Eldrazi
  • 1-6 versus Bogles
  • 2-15 versus Rock
  • Zero-7 versus Amulet Titan

Dying’s Shadow went:

  • 5-1 versus Purple-Inexperienced Valakut
  • 5-1 versus Storm
  • 15-6 versus Inexperienced Tron
  • 14-21 versus Izzet Phoenix
  • Three-9 versus Affinity
  • Three-11 versus Dredge
  • 1-Four versus Eldrazi
  • 1-Four versus Pink Jail
  • 2-10 versus Spirits

Dredge went:

  • Four-Zero versus Demise and Taxes
  • 6-1 versus Purple Jail
  • 11-Three versus Dying’s Shadow
  • 14-Four versus Purple Phoenix
  • Three-9 versus Amulet Titan
  • 1-Four versus Advert Nauseam
  • Zero-Four versus Devoted Vizier

The Rock had the bottom variety of clear matchups relative to the variety of its pilots:

  • 15-2 versus Burn
  • 7-2 versus Spirits
  • 1-5 versus White-Blue Management

Spirits went:

  • 5-Zero versus Dying and Taxes
  • 5-Zero versus Devoted Vizier
  • 10-2 versus Demise’s Shadow
  • 5-1 versus Affinity
  • Four-1 versus Merfolk
  • 7-2 versus Rock
  • Four-15 versus Burn
  • Four-16 versus Izzet Phoenix
  • 1-6 versus Eldrazi

White-Blue Management went:

  • 7-Zero versus Eldrazi
  • 5-1 versus Rock
  • 16-10 versus Izzet Phoenix
  • 14-9 versus Burn
  • 1-5 versus Hardened Scales

Purple Phoenix went:

  • Four-Zero versus Purple-Inexperienced Valakut
  • 5-1 versus Affinity
  • 7-15 versus Izzet Phoenix
  • Four-14 versus Dredge

People went:

  • Four-Zero versus Advert Nauseam
  • Four-1 versus Hole One

Affinity went:

  • 5-1 versus Pink-Inexperienced Valakut
  • 9-Three versus Dying’s Shadow
  • 10-Four versus Burn
  • 10-17 versus Izzet Phoenix
  • 1-Four versus Amulet Titan
  • 1-5 versus Purple Phoenix
  • 1-5 versus Spirits
  • Zero-5 versus Hardened Scales

Pink-Inexperienced Valakut went:

  • Four-Zero versus Jund
  • Four-Zero versus Purple Jail
  • Four-11 versus Izzet Phoenix
  • 1-Four versus Jeskai Management
  • 1-5 versus Affinity
  • 1-5 versus Demise’s Shadow
  • Zero-Four versus Purple Phoenix

And that’s it. There have been no extra outcomes reaching the identical degree of unambiguity that aren’t already included above.

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