6-Point Articles Frank Karsten Grand Prix Bilbao News

Top Stories from Modern at Grand Prix Bilbao

A breakdown of the combined Day 2 metagame at GP Bilbao and GP Tampa.

We had a fantastic weekend crammed with Trendy motion at MagicFest Bilbao and MagicFest Tampa. In Bilbao, I used to be answerable for the textual content protection, which refers to updates on Twitter, Fb, and Instagram, the gathering and manufacturing of Trendy deck lists, participant profiles, and metagame breakdowns, in addition to extra deck lists, the newest standings, bracket updates, photographs, deck techs, and occasion summaries on the protection web site.

A clever man as soon as stated, “a mathematician is a tool for turning espresso into theorems,” and I dare to say that the identical holds for occasion protection content material as nicely. Let’s go over the issues that stood out to me over the weekend.

If we mix the metagame breakdowns in Bilbao (for 302 Day 2 gamers) and Tampa (for 174 Day 2 gamers) then the general image seems like this:,

Click on to enlarge.

That’s a number of Izzet Phoenix decks. And to assume, it was solely a bit of over 4 months in the past that the deck appeared for the primary time. At Grand Prix Atlanta, Jon Stern defined his addition of Factor within the Ice to the Runaway Purple builds that have been extra prevalent again then, and Andrew Schneider was the primary participant to place the archetype within the Prime 32 of a Grand Prix. The listing received perfected over the course of the previous few months, however it’s all nonetheless a really current phenomenon. And it takes time to discover ways to correctly sideboard towards Izzet Phoenix, particularly because the deck’s win circumstances require totally different solutions.

Izzet Phoenix

Guillaume Matignon, 1st at Grand Prix Bilbao

2 Polluted Delta
four Scalding Tarn
four Spirebluff Canal
2 Steam Vents
1 Sulfur Falls
Three Island
2 Mountain
four Arclight Phoenix
2 Crackling Drake
four Factor within the Ice/Awoken Horror
1 Echoing Fact
four Faithless Looting
1 Intestine Shot
1 Izzet Allure
1 Lightning Axe
four Lightning Bolt
four Manamorphose
2 Pyromancer Ascension
four Serum Visions
2 Surgical Extraction
four Thought Scour
four Choose

1 Abrade
1 Anger of the Gods
2 Blood Moon
1 Ceremonious Rejection
2 Dispel
2 Dragon’s Claw
1 Flame Slash
1 Hurkyl’s Recall
1 Jace, the Thoughts Sculptor
1 Ravenous Lure
1 Shatterstorm
1 Spell Pierce

When an archetype is greater than 1/fifth of the Day 2 metagame, pure inquiries to ask are, “What was its proportion on Day 1?” or “What was the conversion from Day 1 to Day 2?” However nobody has the time to sift by means of actually hundreds of deck lists on Day 1, and the conversion price statistic would muddily rely an Eight-Zero participant with Zero byes in the identical means as a 6-2 participant with Three byes. It’s extra sensible and extra insightful to take a look at match win charges as an alternative.

In Bilbao, Izzet Phoenix carried out properly: It gained 55.5% of its non-mirror matches on Day 2. I acquired this quantity comparatively shortly by combining the complete Day 2 deck overview, every spherical’s outcome information, and a few useful lookup features in a spreadsheet.

Listed here are the 14 most-played archetypes, sorted by win fee in non-mirror matches in Day 2 of Grand Prix Bilbao.

Deck archetype Win price (match outcomes)
Whir Jail 66.7% (44-22)
Dredge 60.Zero% (51-34)
U/W Management 59.Zero% (36-25)
Affinity 55.6% (40-32)
Izzet Phoenix 55.5% (152-122)
Tron 52.1% (49-45)
Grixis Shadow 50.Eight% (31-30)
Burn 47.9% (46-50)
Hardened Scales 46.four% (32-37)
People 45.Three% (53-64)
Spirits 43.Eight% (21-27)
Advert Nauseam 43.Eight% (14-18)
R/G Valakut 41.Zero% (16-23)
The Rock 37.Eight% (28-46)

To provide some concept of statistical significance: If Whir Jail truly had a 50% match win fee towards the sector, then the chance that the deck would win at the least 44 of its 66 matches can be Zero.Zero05. For Dredge, the analogous p-value can be Zero.Zero41. Which means the spectacular performances are unlikely to be the results of “simply variance.”

These two decks have been nice towards Izzet Phoenix particularly. On Day 2 of Grand Prix Bilbao, Whir Jail gained 76% of its 21 matches towards Izzet Phoenix, and Dredge gained 71% of its 24 matches towards Izzet Phoenix. The chance to see outcomes at the least nearly as good as these, if the matchup was truly 50-50, can be smaller than Zero.05 in each instances.

These are just a few shortly generated stats. They don’t embrace different matchups, Day 1 matches, card decisions, or outcomes from Tampa. But my preliminary number-crunching signifies that Izzet Phoenix is beatable. It attracts many gamers as a result of it’s highly effective and enjoyable to play, however each Whir Jail and Dredge are higher picks to assault the metagame.

I’m positive that my colleague Tobi Henke may give extra in-depth evaluation as soon as he has had a while to go over all the info. At this level, I’ve religion that Trendy can modify, however we’ll see in a couple of months. The subsequent B&R announcement is on Might 20, after Mythic Championship London.

Trendy stays a brewer’s paradise. At each occasion, I see a number of decks close to the highest tables that make me say, “oh candy, I hadn’t seen that shortly!” Listed here are the 2 best-performing archetypes that have been piloted by solely a single participant in Day 2.

Tribal Zoo

David Csente, 20th (12-Three) at Grand Prix Bilbao

four Arid Mesa
1 Blood Crypt
1 Breeding Pool
1 Godless Shrine
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Sacred Foundry
1 Steam Vents
1 Stomping Floor
1 Temple Backyard
four Windswept Heath
four Wooded Foothills
1 Forest
1 Plains
four Bloodbraid Elf
2 Ghor-Clan Rampager
2 Knight of Autumn
four Mantis Rider
four Noble Hierarch
four Tarmogoyf
four Wild Nacatl
1 Boros Appeal
four Lightning Bolt
four Lightning Helix
1 Path to Exile
four Tribal Flames

2 Blessed Alliance
1 Cindervines
2 Damping Sphere
2 Knight of Autumn
Three Leyline of the Void
Three Lingering Souls
1 Path to Exile
1 Shalai, Voice of A lot

Tribal Zoo is just not a brand new archetype by any means, nevertheless it’s been sort of fringe as of late. It’s all the time good when it performs nicely, and David Csente had a superb run with it.

I like David’s listing. Noble Hierarch is extra highly effective than Narnam Renegade or Kird Ape, and Ghor-Clan Rampager can deal loads of shock injury. Additions from the newest two units embrace Knight of Autumn and Cindervines, each of which add some good utility. Lastly, Leyline of the Void might look bizarre in a deck with solely two black-producing lands, nevertheless it’s value it towards Dredge.


Olivier Consille, 23th (12-Three) at Grand Prix Bilbao

four Spirebluff Canal
2 Tolaria West
2 Steam Vents
four Scalding Tarn
2 Cascade Bluffs
four Island
2 Mountain
four Curator of Mysteries
Three Road Wraith
four Desert Cerodon
four Striped Riverwinder
four Dwelling Finish
four Ancestral Imaginative and prescient
four Remand
four Cryptic Command
four As Foretold
four Electrodominance
1 Tormod’s Crypt

2 Negate
Three Fulminator Mage
2 Ratchet Bomb
2 Tormod’s Crypt
2 Anger of the Gods
four Chalice of the Void

Electrodominance, newly printed in Ravnica Allegiance, provides a whole lot of consistency to a technique that was overly reliant on As Foretold earlier than. In Bilbao, Olivier Consille was the one participant who was exploiting Electrodominance in Day 2, and he had an amazing outcome to point out for it.

A standout card in Olivier’s sideboard was Chalice of the Void. A Chalice on 1 doesn’t harm this deck in any respect as a result of it accommodates zero 1-mana spells, and the artifact helped him beat a number of Burn decks over the course of the weekend.

The 2 best-known names within the Prime Eight have been Guillaume Matignon and Luis-Samuel Deltour. For Matignon, a three-time Professional Tour Prime Eight competitor, it was truly his first lifetime Grand Prix Prime Eight, which meant that he lastly left an unique group. Earlier than this occasion, there have been solely three gamers with over $100,000 lifetime winnings and no less than Three Professional Tour Prime 8s who had by no means made a Grand Prix Prime Eight. These gamers have been Gary Clever, Andrea Mengucci, and Guillaume Matignon. Now, solely two stay.

An image of Guillaume holding up his trophy.

Click on to enlarge.

The 2 French gamers met within the finals, the place Deltour appeared to have recreation Three locked up with Chalice of the Void and Ensnaring Bridge. However he received caught with three blue playing cards in hand on account of Matignon’s Blood Moon, permitting a pair of Phoenixes to assault for the win.

If it weren’t for that Blood Moon, Deltour may need clinched a winner’s trophy, and the story of the weekend might have been about Whir Jail. As an alternative, Deltour now holds the unhappy document of getting misplaced four GP finals with out having ever gained a champion’s trophy.

A picture of a sad Louis-Samuel holding a Grand Prix finalist plaque and holding up four fingers.

Click on to enlarge.

Whir Jail

Louis-Samuel Deltour, 2nd at Grand Prix Bilbao

1 Academy Ruins
four Botanical Sanctum
Three Glimmervoid
1 Inventors’ Truthful
1 Ipnu Rivulet
four Spire of Business
1 Tectonic Edge
four Tolaria West
2 Island
four Historic Stirrings
1 Bottled Cloister
four Chalice of the Void
1 Crucible of Worlds
1 Damping Sphere
2 Engineered Explosives
four Ensnaring Bridge
four Mishra’s Bauble
four Mox Opal
1 Pyrite Spellbomb
2 Sorcerous Spyglass
2 Tormod’s Crypt
four Welding Jar
four Whir of Invention
1 Witchbane Orb

1 Grafdigger’s Cage
2 Sai, Grasp Thopterist
1 Slaughter Pact
2 Sorcerous Spyglass
four Spellskite
Three Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas
1 Torpor Orb
1 Unmoored Ego

If I have been enjoying Trendy at MagicFest Calgary or MagicFest Sao Paulo, and my favourite Affinity deck was off-limits for some cause, then I might strongly contemplate Whir Jail. The deck put up spectacular outcomes, and it has the proper instruments to beat Izzet Phoenix.

The perfect solutions to Izzet Phoenix are those that cope with its velocity or that shut down each win circumstances on the similar time. In any case, when you usher in spot removing then you definitely lose to Arclight Phoenix, and in case you usher in graveyard hate then you definitely lose to Factor within the Ice. However Chalice of the Void for X=1 stops almost their complete card draw engine, and Ensnaring Bridge makes them unable to win. These two lock items type the core of Whir Jail.

Ultimately, the deck wins by way of Pyrite Spellbomb or Ipnu Rivulet recursion, however that’s an afterthought. If you wish to study extra concerning the deck, then you need to comply with League trophy collector Michael Coyle, who streams as susurrus_mtg. If not, then be ready with Shatterstorm and/or Hurkyl’s Recall in your sideboard. The deck is actual.

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