964 gamers made Grand Prix Niagara Falls the most important Legacy event of the yr up to now. I used to be capable of finding out, with lots of assist from the superior Legacy group, what decks 751 of the rivals determined to play. This equals 78% of the sector and an enormous quantity of knowledge to research. So right here we go.
The Beginning Area Composition
Subsequent in line have been 9 gamers every on Merfolk and Delverblade, eight gamers every who dug into their graves with some Arclight Phoenix construct or Dredge, in addition to seven gamers every who ran Omni-Inform and R/U/G Delver.
As you’ll be able to inform, when it got here to archetype categorization, I erred on the aspect of warning. That’s, I used a wonderful comb to separate hairs slightly than the considerably broader brush for portray comparable footage in different codecs. It is sensible too, as a result of between Brainstorm and Ponder, even a couple of playing cards distinction could make an entire lot of distinction in Legacy recreation play.
But some animals are extra equal than others. A typical Grixis Delver essential deck differed from its extra widespread Izzet cousin by a handful of black spells at most: a few Darkish Confidant or Gurmag Angler, perhaps a singleton Bitterblossom, Deadly Push, or Kolaghan’s Command—not often Cabal Remedy these days to go together with the ever present Younger Pyromancer. The straight blue-red variations didn’t have many playing cards uniquely their very own both: an abundance of Pteramander, extra burn and bounce, and the odd Mild Up the Stage. In fact, sideboards inform one other story completely.
A mannequin is simply nearly as good because the utility it supplies, and totally different pursuits might require totally different fashions. If all you need to know is how probably it was for somebody at GP Niagara Falls to face an early Insectile Aberration adopted by principally blue and purple spells, then the reply isn’t eight.9% however 12.6% or 13.6% (when counting R/U/G as properly).
So the Human Insect was hardly an aberration in any respect. Comparably widespread was White-Blue Stoneblade, and this one crossed the 10% threshold too when you add within the White-Blue Delverblade decks. My good friend Julian insists that the 2 belong in separate classes.
Admittedly, one further purpose for separating them is the straightforward incontrovertible fact that their numbers allowed the posh to take action. In distinction, the above doesn’t differentiate between “Advert Nauseam Tendrils” and “The Good/Epic Storm” or “Fetchland Tendrils” or any of the finer notes the educated palate of a consummate combo connoisseur can distinguish. I simply referred to as every part “Storm”—apart from the Mono-Pink Storm deck powered by Ruby Medallion and performed by two attendees to a Day 1 end.
Comparability with Prime Finishers
Once we examine these numbers to the complete Day 2 metagame, a number of issues stand out. Blue-Purple Delver fell from virtually 9% to about 5%, indicating a really poor efficiency on Day 1. Grixis Delver, then again, climbed from Three.7% to about 9%.
Took a lot of the day, however we’ve a full Day 2 metagame breakdown for #MTGNiagaraFalls!
– Only one deck eclipsed 10% of the sector.
– Stoneforge Mystic is having a really robust weekend.
– Delver methods span the complete spectrum, from Grixis to Temur to UW. pic.twitter.com/XAQ2kRXra4
— ChannelFireball (@ChannelFireball) April 21, 2019
Such a reversal is unbelievable. In truth, we actually shouldn’t consider it, as a result of it additionally isn’t fairly true. My knowledge present that the metagame breakdown should have mislabeled at the very least some blue-red decks as Grixis. This isn’t a knock on the work the one-man protection crew put in in the course of the very restricted time out there on the weekend. Quite, I wish to view it as proof of the worth of in-depth post-event protection similar to what you’re studying proper now.
Minor inaccuracies however, Grixis Delver certainly outperformed Blue-Pink Delver by so much. Among the many 751 whose deck selection I do know, 11 of 28 Grixis gamers (39%) reached the second day, however solely 15 of 67 Izzet gamers (22%) did.
Moreover, the entire Day 2 breakdown means that the metagame share of Stoneblade and Turbo Depths elevated after the reduce, whereas Miracles, Sneak and Present, Dying and Taxes, and particularly Burn misplaced a little bit of their stake. All of it’s in line with what the unfinished 751-player pattern says about development.
A few of these tendencies continued on Sunday…
Stoneblade improved its share a bit extra on the prime of the sector, and Turbo Depths actually placed on the turbo for the homestretch. Grixis Delver once more outperformed Blue-Purple Delver.
On the similar time, Sunday’s rounds launched at the very least one new development: When it got here to putting contained in the Prime 32, each Grixis Management in addition to Miracles excelled. Particularly, their success right here exceeded their Day 1 efficiency, which echoes the truism that management methods are at a elementary benefit in a well-defined surroundings in comparison with a wider area.
Alas, when working off of incomplete Day 1 info, taking a look at conversion charges all the time leaves a little bit of uncertainty. It’s a lot better to only calculate the win percentages for the recognized portion of the sector.
Relying on how extensive a internet you forged, the highest finishers variously recommend that Stoneblade claiming the trophy, Dying and Taxes with two copies within the Prime eight, or Miracles with 5 copies within the Prime 32 have been the weekend’s winners. However one of the best efficiency amongst mainstream decks delivered Grixis Delver. The Statistics 101 lecturer agrees. Profitable 147 of 248 matches is very vital. A deck with a fair win fee wins this a lot or extra solely with a chance of p=zero.002. (A p-value of zero.05 is the customary benchmark for statistical significance.)
It’s more durable to make a definitive assertion relating to the deserves of Demise’s Shadow or Maverick. Each gained 57% of their matches inside the pattern. That a lot is plain. However we will’t simply award a stamp of approval right here, as a result of it’s means too doubtless that these data resulted from variance. Neither deck’s efficiency was vital, at p=zero.094 and p=zero.097. Actually, most decks’ outcomes didn’t clear that hurdle. The one decks whose data did cross muster have been the aforementioned Grixis Delver in addition to Sneak and Present, Stoneblade, Reanimator, and poor Burn.
Often it proves futile to increase the search for vital findings into the fringes of the metagame. It’s uncommon for a distinct segment technique to cobble collectively a significant report. In Niagara Falls, one minor deck did win in a serious approach although. I solely know of 4 gamers who picked Metal Stompy as their weapon of selection, however they ended the event on 36, 33, 30, and 15 match factors. Success on this degree appears unimaginable, however a mixed report of 34-15 is credible. At the least the corresponding p-value of zero.0047 suggests one thing extremely vital.
Or quite, it might be extremely vital, if all of those wins have been unrelated. With simply 4 gamers contributing, we as an alternative face a really robust connection. So perhaps it wasn’t a lot Metal Stompy itself however the Metal Stompy pilots that overperformed. I imply, this Jamie fellow who completed ninth isn’t only a common Dekin however a correct Archdekin.
Then once more, this entire subject of research is based on the concept nicely performing gamers should have chosen good decks and that it’s worthwhile to comply with their lead. So perhaps check out Jamie Archdekin’s 12-Three deck listing and at Max Gilmore’s 11-Four deck record under.
Max Gilmore, 45th Place
Three Blinkmoth Nexus
Four Metropolis of Traitors
1 Inventors’ Truthful
Four Mishra’s Manufacturing unit
1 Tower of the Justice of the Peace
Four Arcbound Ravager
1 Hangarback Walker
1 Phyrexian Metamorph
Three Phyrexian Revoker
Four Metal Overseer
Four Thought-Knot Seer
2 Vault Skirge
Four Strolling Ballista
Four Chalice of the Void
Four Lotus Petal
2 Mox Opal
Four Thorn of Amethyst
Three Karn, Scion of Urza
1 Hangarback Walker
Three Ratchet Bomb
Four Leyline of the Void
1 Warping Wail
2 Ensnaring Bridge
I additionally checked the data from the primary eight rounds and the next seven rounds for variations. Some notable enhancements:
- Demise and Taxes gained 47.5% of 265 matches earlier than the minimize, then 60% of 50 matches.
- Sneak and Present gained 53.eight% of 292 matches earlier than the reduce, then 61.5% of 78 matches.
- Grixis Management gained 48.9% of 186 matches earlier than the reduce, then 54.Four% of 57 matches.
- Miracles gained 51.Three% of 304 matches earlier than the reduce, then 56.2% of 73 matches.
Turbo Depths, regardless of its robust presence within the Prime 32, truly did worse on Day 2. In the course of the first eight rounds the deck earned victories in 55.7% of 230 matches, whereas it barely went constructive all through the next seven, with a document of 43-42. These wins and losses clearly weren’t distributed evenly.
Subsequent week, I’m going to make use of the info from Niagara Falls to reply additional questions. Like: Who gained within the battle between Reanimator and Turbo Depths? Or: what was Sneak and Present’s worst matchup?
Once I did comparable work for different codecs prior to now, I might all the time draw upon a wealth of expectations with which to match the findings. For instance, I used to be capable of affirm repeatedly that Trendy Hardened Scales has an issue with Izzet Phoenix. Conversely, I discovered that Mono-Blue Tempo was the truth is not favored in any respect towards Esper Management on the Commonplace Mythic Championship. Since I not often get to cowl Legacy, I don’t know what conforms to standard knowledge, what would represent a shock, and what’s a contested matter of debate on this format.
If you wish to assist me out, submit a remark under and inform me what you contemplate to be some clear matchups. Which Legacy deck beats which different deck reliably? What do you anticipate the info from Niagara Falls to point out? Then examine again subsequent week and money in your hard-earned “advised you so” fairness.
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